Social-Ecological Risk Determinant and Prediction For Dengue Transmission Siregar Fazidah Aguslina1,*, Makmur Tri2 1Departement of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, University of Sumatra Utara, Medan, Indonesia 2Faculty of Medicine, Islamic University of Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia *Corresponding Author: Fazidah Aguslina Siregar, Departement of Epidemiology, Public Health Faculty, University of Sumatera Utara, Jl. Universitas No 21, Medan, 20155, Email: fazidah@usu.ac.id
Online published on 20 March, 2019. Abstract Background Dengue hemorrhagic fever is a serious health problem in Medan, with high incidence annually. Social and ecological factors are play role on dengue transmission. Purpose The aims of study to determine the impact of social and ecological factors on dengue transmission and made a prediction model for dengue transmission. Method This study was a cross sectional study with 100 households both in high and low subdistricts dengue incidence that were selected using systematic random sampling. Of the 100 households, larvae examination was performed. Data analysis was performed using simple and multiple logistic regressions. Results The results revealed that houses without window screen, frequency of cleaning of garbage dump more than 7 days and presence of larvae positive container had roles on dengue transmission in Medan with the equation of prediction model for dengue transmission = 2.343 +(−2.025 x houses without window screen) + (1.876 x frequence of cleaning garbage dump more than 7 days) + (1.549 x presence of larvae positive container). Conclusions social and ecological factors are related to dengue transmission in Medan. Health promotion about dengue prevention is essential and should be intensified to improve dengue preventive measures. Top Keywords Social-ecological, risk, prediction, dengue transmission. Top |