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Climate change: GHG emissions and mitigation |
| [195] | Economic assessment of mitigation options for enhancing and maintaining carbon sink capacity in Indonesia | | Boer R. 2001 | LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) projects may become eligible under Article 12 of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) Kyoto Protocol's CDM (clean development mechanism). Some of the issues, which need to be addressed, include identifying the types of GHG mitigation activities in LULUCF, which could be undertaken as CDM projects. Other issues involve evaluating the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the activities, as well as their likely socio-economic impacts and their influence on the national carbon stock. Three broad categories of mitigation activities in LULUCF analysed in this study include managing carbon storage, carbon conservation, and carbon substitution. The carbon intensity of the activities was estimated to range from 37-218 mg C (milligram of carbon) per ha. The highest is in refo-rested land with slow growing species and the lowest in short-rotation plantations. At a real discount rate of 10%, investment costs required to implement the mitigation activities ranged from $0.07-0.88/mg C, with life cycle costs ranging from $0.07-3.87/mg C, and benefits ranging from $0.81-6.57/mg C. Mitigation options with negative benefits are forest protection, reforestation, reduced impact logging and enhanced natural regeneration, while those with positive benefits are short rotation timber plantation, and bioenergy. Reforestation gave negative benefit since no revenue from wood as trees are left in the forest for conservation, while RIL (reduced impact logging) and ENR (enhanced natural regeneration) gave negative benefits because the additional cost required to implement the options could not be compensated by the increase in round-hardwood yield. The other factor is that the local price of round-hardwood is very low, i.e. 160 dollars per m3, while FOB price is between 250-400 dollars per m3. Total area available for implementing mitigation options (planting trees) in 1997 was 31 million hectares (about 40% are critical lands, 35% grasslands and 25% unproductive lands). Total area being considered for implementing the options under baseline, government-plans and mitigation scenarios in the period 2000-2030 is 12.6, 16.3 and 23.6 million hectares respectively. Furthermore, total area of production forest being considered for implementing reduced impact logging and enrichment planting under the tree scenarios is 9, 26 and 16 million hectares respectively, and that for forest protection is 2.1, 3.7, 3.1 million hectares respectively. The cumulative investment for implementing all mitigation activities in the three scenarios was estimated at 595, 892 and 1026 million dollars respectively. National carbon stock under the baseline scenario will continuously decline through 2030, while under government-plans and mitigation scenarios the carbon stock increases. In 2030, national carbon stock of the government and mitigation scenarios is almost the same, 13% higher than that of baseline. However, the increase in national carbon stock in both scenarios could not offset carbon emissions due to deforestation.
(5 figures, 11 tables, 69 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):257–290 | Department of Geophysics and Meteorology,
Bogor Agricultural University, Jl Raya Pajajaran, Bogor, Indonesia | | | [196] | Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the United States from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies in the electricity sector | | Burtraw D, Krupnick A, Palmer K, Paul A, et al. 2001 | This paper considers how moderate actions to slow atmospheric accumulation of GHGs from fossil fuel use also could reduce conventional air pollutants in the US. The benefits that result would be ancillary to GHG abatement. Moreover, the benefits would tend to accrue locally and in the near term, while benefits from reduced climate change mostly accrue globally and over a time frame of several decades or longer. The previous literature suggests that changes in NOx (nitrogen oxides) would be the most important consequence of moderate carbon policies. The authors calculate these changes in a detailed electricity model linked to an integrated assessment framework to value changes in human health. A tax of 25 dollars per metric tonne of carbon emissions would yield NOx related health benefits of about 8 dollars per metric tonne of carbon reduced in the year 2010 (1997 dollars). Additional savings accrue from reduced investment in NOx and SO2 abatement in order to comply with emission caps. These savings sum to $4-7 per tonne of carbon reduced. Total ancillary benefits of a $25 carbon tax are estimated to be $12-14 , which appear to justify the costs of a $25 tax, although marginal benefits are less than marginal costs. At a tax of $75 per tonne carbon, greater health benefits and abatement cost savings are achieved but the value of ancillary benefits per tonne of carbon reductions remains roughly constant at about $12.
(6 tables, 43 references) | | Discussion Paper01–61:43 pp. | Resources for the Future,
1616 P Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA <http://www.rff.org/disc_papers/
PDF_files/0161.pdf> | | | [197] | The potential of Brazil's forest sector for mitigating global warming under the Kyoto Protocol | | Fearnside PM. 2001 | Brazil's forest sector offers unique opportunities for carbon offsets under the CDM, which was created under Article 12 of the December 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC. Activities in Brazil's forest sector have substantial potential for mitigating global warming as well as additional environmental and other benefits. Silvicultural plantations of different types, reduced impact logging, and deforestation avoidance, all have potential mitigation roles. The magnitude of the annual emission from recent rates of deforestation in Amazonia presents an opportunity for carbon benefits through reducing current rates of deforestation. Measures related to Amazonian deforestation have greater potential carbon benefits than do options such as plantation silviculture, but much depends on how benefits are calculated. Procedures are needed for assessing the environmental and social impacts of CDM projects.
(1 figure, 2 tables, 60 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):355–372 | Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia - INPA (National Institute for Research in the Amazon - INPA),
Av. Andre Araujo, 1756, C.P. 478, 69011–970 Manaus-Amazonas, Brazil
<pmfearn@inpa.gov.br> | | | [198] | Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models | | Gurney KR, Law RM, Denning AS, Rayner PJ, et al. 2001 | Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models. The authors report estimates of surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. The authors find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extra-tropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches. The authors also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to the authors' understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network within the tropics.
(3 figures, 30 references) | | Nature415(6872):626–630 | Department of Atmospheric Science,
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colarado 80523, USA | | | [199] | Earth's rising atmospheric CO2 concentration: impacts on the biosphere | | Idso CD. 2001 | Concern has been expressed over the potential climatic and biological consequences of earth's rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, which is expected to double above pre-industrial values sometime this century. This paper reviews several of the biological consequences that are likely to result, including enhanced plant photosynthesis and growth, an increase in plant water use efficiency, and the potential for atmospheric CO2 to reduce the growth-retarding effects of several environmental stresses. Implications of these phenomena are also briefly discussed, including the potential for atmospheric CO2 enrichment to enhance ecosystem biodiversity and carbon sequestration.
(171 references) | | Energy and Environment12(4):287–310 | Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change,
PO Box 25697, Tempe, Arizona 85285–5697, USA | | | [200] | Climate change mitigation activities in the Philippine forestry sector: application of the COMAP model | | Lasco RD and Pulhin FB. 2001 | The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be a major sink for carbon. The present study was conducted to evaluate potential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the COMAP (comprehensive mitigation assessment process) model. The baseline BAU (business-as-usual) scenario assumes that current trends continue up to the year 2030. Two mitigation scenarios were evaluated: HS (high scenario) and LS (low scenario). The former is patterned largely from the government's forest master plan while the latter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan. The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total carbon stock of the Philippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814 X 106 mg C, down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The carbon stocks of the HS and LS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU, respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantations and forest protection activities produce the greatest carbon gain (199 and 104 X 106 Mg, respectively, under HS). The NPV (net present value) of benefits is highest in the bioenergy option with $24.48 per mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a real discount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs are also highest using bioenergy. The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigation scenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263 X 106 while for the HS it is $748 X 106. Finally, policy issues and decisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCF mitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified and discussed.
(5 figures, 9 tables, 34 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):313–334 | Environmental Forestry Programme,
College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines at Los Bafios College, 4031 Laguna, The Philippines | | | [201] | Potential and cost of carbon sequestration in the Tanzanian forest sector | | Makundi WR. 2001 | The forest sector in Tanzania offers ample opportunities to reduce GHG emissions and sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. More than 90% of the country's demand for primary energy is obtained from biomass mostly procured unsustainably from natural forests. This study examines the potential to sequester carbon through expansion of forest plantations aimed at reducing the dependence on natural forest for wood fuel production, as well as increase the country's output of industrial wood from plantations. These were compared to conservation options in the tropical and miombo ecosystems. Three sequestration options were analyzed, involving the establishment of short rotation and long rotation plantations on about 1.7 X 106 hectares. The short rotation community forestry option has a potential to sequester an equilibrium amount of 197.4 X 106 mg C by 2024 at a net benefit of 79.5 X 106, while yielding a NPV of $0.46 mg1 C. The long rotation options for softwood and hardwood plantations will reach an equilibrium sequestration of 5.6 and 11.8 X 106 mg C at a negative NPV of $0.60 mg1 C and $0.32 mg1 C. The three options provide cost competitive opportunities for sequestering about 7.5 X 106 mg C/yr while providing desired forest products and easing the pressure on the natural forests in Tanzania. The endowment costs of the sequestration options were all found to be cheaper than the emission avoidance cost for conservation options which had an average cost of $1.27 mg1 C, rising to 7.5 mg1 C under some assumptions on vulnerability to encroachment. The estimates shown here may represent the upper bound, because the actual potential will be influenced by market prices for inputs and forest products, land use policy constraints, and the structure of global carbon transactions.
(2 figures, 6 tables, 23 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):335–353 | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California, USA | | | [202] | Forestry mitigation options for Mexico: finding synergies between national sustainable development priorities and global concerns | | Masera OR, Ceron AD, and Ordonez A. 2001 | The authors examine carbon reference and mitigation scenarios for the Mexican forest sector between the year 2000-30. Estimates are presented separately for the period 2008-12. Future carbon emissions and capture are estimated using a simulation model that: (a) allocates the country land use/land cover classes among different future uses and categories using demand-based scenarios for forestry products, (b) estimates the total carbon densities associated to each land use category, and (c) determines the net carbon implications of the process of land use/ cover change according to the different scenarios. The options analysed include both afforestation/reforestation - such as commercial, bionenergy and restoration plantations, agroforestry systems, and forest conservation - through the sustainable management of native forests and forest protection. The total mitigation potential, estimated as the difference between the total long-term carbon stock in the reference and the mitigation scenarios reaches 300 X 106 mg C in the year 2012 and increases to 1382 X 106 mg C in 2030. The average net sequestration in the 30 year period is 46 X 106 mg C/yr, or 12.5 X 106 mg C/yr within the period 2008-12. The costs of selected mitigation options range from 0.7-3.5 mg C1 - 35 mg C 1. Some options are cost effective.
(5 figures, 9 tables, 32 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):291–312 | Instituto de Ecologfa,
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Campus Morelia, Mexico. C.C. El Parian L 17, Patzcuaro 61609, Michoacan, Mexico
<omasera@ate.oikos.unam.mx> | | | [203] | Forestry for sustainable biomass production and carbon sequestration in India | | Ravindranath NH, Sudha P, and Rao S. 2001 | A sustainable forestry scenario aimed at meeting the projected biomass demands, halting deforestation and regenerating degraded forests was developed and analysed for additionality of mitigation and cost-effectiveness for India. Similarly, mitigation potential of a commercial forestry scenario aimed at meeting the biomass demands from forestry activities on private land was assessed. India has a significant scale baseline scenario afforestation and effective forest conservation activities. India is afforesting at an average gross rate of 1.55 X 106 ha/yr over the past 10 years, while the gross deforestation rate was 0.272 X 106 ha/yr during the same period. The sustainable forestry scenario could lead to an additional carbon stock of 237 X 106 mg C during 2000-12, while the commercial forestry scenario apart from meeting all the incremental biomass demands (estimated for 2000-15) could potentially lead to an additional carbon stock of 78 X 106 mg C during 2000-12. Short- and long-rotation forestry activities are commercially viable. With appropriate policies and financial incentives all the industrial wood, sawnwood, and commercial fuel wood requirement could be met through commercial forestry, so that government funds could be dedicated for conserving state owned forests and meeting subsistence biomass demands. The commercial forestry activities could receive financial support under greenhouse gas abatement programmes. The government, however, needs to develop institutions and guidelines to process, evaluate, approve and monitor forestry sector mitigation projects.
(6 figures, 9 tables, 13 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):233–256 | Centre for Ecological Sciences,
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore- 560 012, India | | | [204] | Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, The Philippines and Tanzania | | Sathaye JA, Makundi WR, Andrasko K, Boer R, et al. 2001 | The paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach -COMAP (Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process) - to estimate the above parameters between 2000-30. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on carbon sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg [petagram] C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 pg C between 2000-30 in the seven countries (about 200 X 106 mg C/yr) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to $100 mg C1. About 5 pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than $20 per mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocul-tural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analysed options.
(9 figures, 7 tables, 32 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):185–211 | Energy Analysis Department,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
<jasathaye@lbl.gov > | | | [205] | Mitigation potential for carbon sequestration through forestry activities in southern and eastern China | | Xu D, Zhang X-Q, and Shi Z. 2001 | In this paper, forest protection, short- and long-rotation plantations, forest regeneration, agroforestry and other activities for carbon sequestration were evaluated. China may be divided into five sub-regions, of which three fall in the main forested areas of China, i.e., the north-east, the south-east and the south-west regions. The forestry mitigation potential in these three regions is the subject of this paper. The COMAP (Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process) model is used to calculate the potential for carbon mitigation and the cost-effectiveness of each mitigation option, assuming that 60% of the goals of long-term forestry plans of the Chinese government could be realized. The results show that the total sequestered carbon by the mitigation scenario between 2000-30 for the three regions of China will be 2093 X 106 mg C, of which 281 X 106 mg C will occur between 2008-12. The total net biomass sequestration (difference of mitigation and baseline scenarios) from 2000-30 and from 2008-12 is 496 X 106 mg C and 59 X 106 mg C respectively. The carbon sequestration potential could be higher if other two regions are included since the forest area of the two regions amount to 26.5% of total forested area, in particular, the land area suitable for forestation in the northwest accounts for 45% of the total. The activity with least investment cost per unit of carbon is forest regeneration, followed by long-rotation plantation and forest conservation. The most investment-intensive activity is bioenergy. The total investment for all the mitigation activities is 12.7 billion dollars. The above figures between 2008-12 provide an upper bound on the potential for early start projects that might be eligible for the CDM. The authors would like to note that the mitigation potential and cost-effectiveness of agroforestry and bioenergy projects need to be further studied.
(7 figures, 10 tables, 12 references) | | Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change6(3 and 4):213–232 | Forest Ecology and Environment Institute,
Chinese Academy of Forestry, Wan Shou Shan, Beijing 100091, China | | | [206] | Estimate of total CO output from desertified sandy land in China | | Zhenghu D, Honglang X, Zhibao D, Xingdong H, et al. 2001 | Soil is an important factor in regional and global carbon budgets because it serves as a reservoir of large amount of organic carbon. In this paper, using remote sensing data of different periods the authors analyzed the development and reversion of desertification in China, calculated the variations of organic carbon contents of the desertified lands in China. The results showed that the total storage of organic carbon in 0-50 cm soil layer of the desertified lands is 855 MT (million tonnes). In the last 40 years, the total CO2 amount released by land desertification processes to the atmosphere was 150 MT, while the CO2 amount sequestered by desertification reversing processes corresponded to 59 MTC. Hence, the net CO2 amount released from desertified lands of China corresponded to 91 MT C, about 68.42% of the 133 MTC of annual CO2 release in the global temperate and frigid zones. Simultaneously, it indicated that CO2 amount sequestered by desertification reversing processes in desertified land had greater potential than the other soils.
(1 figure, 4 tables, 28 references) | | Atmospheric Environment35{34):5915–5921 | Shapotou Desert Experimental Research Station,
Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 260 Donggang West Road, Lanzhou, 730000, People's Republic of China
<duanzh@public.lz.gs.cn> | |
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