Tomato price forecasting - A comparison between ARIMA, GARCH and ANN Badal Prakash Singh1,*, Goyal Abha1, Kamalvanshi V.1, Kumar Pramod2, Mondal Biswajit3 1Department of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India 2Division of Agricultural Economics, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India 3National Rice Research Institute, Cuttack, Orissa, India *Corresponding author: psbadal@bhu.ac.in
Online Published on 16 October, 2023. Abstract Price forecasting is an integral part of commodity trading and price analysis. India is the second largest producer of tomato in the world after china with production of 21 million tonnes accounting for 11.02% of world’s tomato production. Tomato is the second most important vegetable crop after potato. Vegetables, especially tomatoes, need more accurate price predictions due to its perishable nature and seasonality. In recent years, the prices of tomato have been fluctuating very much. This increases the risk for tomato growers. For this in the present study, ARIMA (3,1,4), GARCH (1,1) and ANN [14-8-1] models are developed for forecasting of tomato price and amongst them ANN [14-8-1] is found to be the best forecasting model and used this for the forecasting of tomato prices for Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India. Top Keywords Tomato, ARIMA, GARCH, ANN, Price. Top |