Climate change scenarios for Kerala during the summer season Riya K.R.*, Ajithkumar B.1, Lincy Davis P.2, Vysakh Arjun2 1Department of Agricultural Meteorology, College of Agriculture, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur-680656, Kerala, India 2College of Agriculture, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur-680656, Kerala, India *Corresponding author email id: riyaaliyot@gmail.com
Abstract Assessing the impact of climate change is an important factor in planning an area's socio-economic sectors. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model, GFDL-CM3, was used to forecast future climate under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The current climate (1980-2020) is compared to future scenarios mid-century (2021- 2050) and end of the century (2051-2080) for the 14 districts of Kerala in the summer season (March to May). From the analysis of solar radiation, spatial variations in solar radiation were observed. Solar radiation is expected to increase in most parts of Kerala under RCP 4.5 (northern zone, central zone, problematic zone, and southern zone except Thiruvananthapuram), while under RCP 8.5, by the end of the century, solar radiation is expected to decrease by -1.5 MJ m-2 in Kannur, Kozhikode, Thiruvananthapuram and Wayanad. From the analysis of temperature during the summer season, it was observed that maximum and minimum temperatures had an increasing trend during all the future simulations except in high ranges. In the high range zone, a normal departure is observed in Wayanad, and a below-normal departure is observed in Idukki during the mid-centuries. By the end of the century, a normal departure is expected in the high range zone. There were spatial variations in rainfall, with excess or normal rainfall in some parts (northern and central zones) and deficiencies in other parts of Kerala. Under both RCPs, large excess and excess rainfall are expected in the northern zone and central zone of Kerala during the summer season. In the high range zone, a reduction in rainfall was expected in Idukki, while an increase in rainfall is expected in Wayanad during the summer season in future simulations. In the problematic zone, summer showers are expected to show a normal departure. In the southern zone, a normal departure is expected by the mid and end of the century, except in Thiruvananthapuram where deficient rainfall is expected. As the temperature is increasing in most parts, vegetables can be grown during the summer season under controlled conditions. A well-designed drainage system can help mitigate the effects of heavy rain, such as floods, and efficient water collection technologies can help alleviate water scarcity and drought conditions. Top Keywords Climate change, Representative concentration pathway, Solar radiation, Temperature, Rainfall. Top |