Analysis of Temporal Changes in Rainfall Pattern: A Case Study of Damoh District in Madhya Pradesh Shukla P.K.1, George Jay Prakash2,*, Bhatnagar Pratibha2 1Regional-Cum-Facilitation Centre, Central Region, National Medicinal Plants Board, New Delhi, India 2Climate Change Cell, State Forest Research Institute, Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh, India *Corresponding author email id: jgjaygeorge@gmail.com
Online published on 19 August, 2020. Abstract Climate change is already affecting many people in low income and agriculture-based societies, due to its adverse effects on food production. It is evident that a variety of climate parameters, like rising temperature, rainfall variability and seasonality as well as climate extremes (e.g. drought) are affecting production. This paper examines the long term changes in the rainfall pattern for past 104 years (1915–2018) in Damoh district of Madhya Pradesh. The study represents the trend of changes in mean annual rainfall and number of rainy days. To identify the recent pattern of changes in rainfall in current year annual fluctuation for past four years (2015–2018) have also been accounted in Damoh. To find out the level of changes or degree of deviation, year wise and annual impact, time series data on rainfall was analyzed. Standard Deviation (SD) and Coefficient of Variance (CV) were also calculated for five decades (1965–2014) which revealed fluctuations with alternate phases of rise and fall. Study revealed that there is no specific pattern of rise and fall in mean annual rainfall during the study period. However, it was found that there were two or three continuous years of heavy rainfall followed by the drainage in rainfall in subsequent years. The analysis in the present study indicates that there is significant downward shift in rainfall in past four years (2015–2018). Damoh region of Madhya Pradesh is a water scarce affected area. This study will assist the farmers and local stakeholders in understanding of shifting weather patterns so that they can adapt their agriculture in rainfed areas. The finding of the study provides more insights and inputs for the better understanding of weather updates and shift behavior in the study area. Top Keywords Climate change, Damoh, Rainfall pattern. Top |