Economic Affairs
Year : 2014, Volume : 59, Issue : 2
First page : ( 191) Last page : ( 208)
Print ISSN : 0424-2513. Online ISSN : 0976-4666.
Article DOI : 10.5958/j.0976-4666.59.2.018

Trends and Determinants of Household Saving in South Africa

Syden Mishi*

Department of Economics, University of Fort Hare, East London Campus, Republic of South Africa

*Corresponding author: smishi@ufh.ac.za

Online published on 29 May, 2014.

Abstract

South Africa managed to have a gross saving rate of 30% to GDP before 1994 but 16% in 2009 (compared to China 52%, Russia 22%). No coincidence that China and Russia are among the economies enjoying rapid growth compared to South Africa. Could the prevalence of an ‘aspirational’ culture negatively impact the South African household savings in which consumption is encouraged by access to credit facilities- necessitated by the sophisticated financial sector? Econometric analysis found the following among others to be statistically significant determinants of household saving rate: level of income, uncertainty (expected inflation), public sector savings and financial development collaborating with many other studies. As both saving and consumer behaviour evolve slowly, the study estimated the correlations by means of an error correction model. This allowed me to estimate a long-run correlation between the variables and to model behaviour in the short run and 2SLS for robustness checks. The study results have diverse policy implications and the following proposals can be made: policy makers must consider fiscal tools e.g. tax incentives to encourage savings (this have been introduced in 2012 national Budget for SA), also consumer education on financial matters.

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Keywords

Household savings, tax incentives, financial literacy, financial sector, VECM, South Africa.

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