Validation of coupled brown planthopper-infocrop rice simulation model and yield loss under elevated CO2 Pandi G. Guru Pirasanna1,*, Chander Subhash, Soumia P. S., Sujithra M. Division of Entomology, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, 110012 1Current address, Division of Crop Protection, ICAR-National Rice Research Institute, Cuttack, 753 006 *Corresponding author Email: guruagri@gmail.com
Online published on 23 July, 2019. Abstract Coupled brown planthopper (BPH)-ICAR-InfoCrop rice simulation model was validated with BPH population and crop yield under elevated CO2 vis-à-vis ambient CO2 experiments during 2013 and 2014. Under ambient CO2, simulated BPH number varied from 13 to 118/hill compared to observed population of 11 to 92/hill; while in simulated varied from 19 to 177/hill in comparison to the observed 16 to 168/hill under elevated CO2 during 2013. Likewise, during 2014 simulated BPH population ranged from 9 to 68/hill compared to observed population of 10 to 65/hill under ambient CO2, whereas simulated one was found to be between 15 to 88 compared to 9 to 80/hill observed under elevated CO2. Simulated and observed BPH number were thus found to be proximal under elevated CO2 (R² = 0.96; p<0.0001) and ambient CO2 (R² = 0.89; p<0.0001) during the first year as well as during second year under elevated CO2 (R² = 0.93; p<0.0001) and ambient CO2 (R² = 0.85; p<0.0001), reflecting appropriate validation of the BPH population dynamics model. Simulated yield loss during 2013 was 19.6% compared to observed yield loss of 23.1% under ambient CO2, with corresponding losses of 34.5 and 38.5% under elevated CO2. In 2014, simulated yield loss was 11.7% in contrast to 14.4% observed under ambient CO2, whereas simulated and observed yield loss was 25.2 and 29.91%, respectively under elevated CO2. The modelling approach presented herein provides an outline for future risk of rice yield loss due to BPH in India under climate change scenarios. Top Keywords Rice, brown planthopper, elevated CO2, pest, food, insect, model, yield loss, model, coupling, simulation. Top |