Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Modeling Uses Weighted Matrix to First and Second Order (Case Study: Malaria Disease in Papua Province) Siswanto, Aidi Muhammad Nur, Djuraidah Anik Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University, INDONESIA Online published on 31 October, 2017. Abstract Malaria is a contagious disease caused by plasmodium, a single-celled organism that belongs to the protozoa group. Malaria is transmitted through the bite of anopheles female mosquito that contains plasmodium in it. The occurrence or transmission of infectious diseases is determined by factors called host, agent, and environment. In Indonesia malaria is found to be widespread on all islands and Papua is the province with the highest API (Annual Parasite Incidence). This study employ publication data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and basic health research of Papua province with Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) method, which is one of the most commonly used models in analyzing areas especially in the field of epidemiology. Moran Index at first order shows that there is no spatial distribution pattern, while the second order there is spatial distribution pattern. The best Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is second order in determining factors affecting malaria disease in Papua because it has the lowest AIC value and variance. For second order significant factors are all explanatory variables namely the average of air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, rainfall, the proportion of households using such a mosquito net, mosquito coils, mosquito wire-netting, mosquito-prevention behavior using repellent, and malaria treatment with drug program by obtaining ACT drugs. Top Keywords Malaria, Conditional Autoregressive (CAR), Second-Order, Moran Index. Top |