International Journal of Engineering and Management Research (IJEMR)
Year : 2017, Volume : 7, Issue : 5
First page : ( 98) Last page : ( 104)
Print ISSN : 2394-6962. Online ISSN : 2250-0758.

A Stochastic Spatial Model of the Spread of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Nuha A. R.¹, Sianturi P.¹, Sumarno H.¹

¹Department of Mathematics, Bogor Agricultural University, INDONESIA

Online published on 8 December, 2017.

Abstract

The dengue virus is spread the Aedes aegypti mosquito that can breed well in the area of human settlements. The dengue virus has the ability to transmit vertically, from mosquitoes to their eggs. This research applies stochastic model study the spread of dengue virus. The purpose of this research were: to modify the Otero and Solari models, to determine the transition probability of the modified model, calculate the probability of disease outbreaks and to carry out computer simulate of the modified model. This simmulation was used to know the effect of temperature and availability the breeding sites of mosquitos on the spread of dengue virus. The results of this research had been constructed the modification of Otero and Solari models by adding four new subpopulations i.e. infected eggs, infected larvae, infected pupae and infected first adult mosquito, in which the transition probability of this model was analyzed by Markov chain approach with discrete time. The numerical simulation results had showed that the variations in temperature has a great influence on the spread of dengue fever, but the number of breeding sites had a little influence on the spread of dengue fever cases.

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Keywords

Breeding sites, Dengue virus, Spatial, Stochastic model, Temperature.

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