Risk Analysis of dengue Fever Occurrence in bone Province Sulawesi South using Temporal Spatial geostatistical Model Rahman Stang Abdul1, Rahim Amran2, Mallongi Anwar3 1Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University 2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University 3Environmental Health Section, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University Online published on 5 May, 2018. Abstract The purpose of this research is to get the best model prediction of dengue fever risk in Bone District using spatial temporal geostatistical model. Time series model is used to describe the dynamics of dengue fever changes with stages: Identification of data, Model identification, model estimation, model assumption check, best model selection and forecasting stage. Implementation of time series model in Bone District incident data and climatic factors shows that the model obtained has a good accuracy. The results showed that: The prediction model of dengue fever occurrence in Tanete Riattang Barat, China, and Mare sub district using ARIMAX model. Dengue prediction model for Ajangale District, Barebbo, Bengo, Two Boccoe and Tellusiattingge using MAX model. Rainfall is an exogenous variable that affects the incidence of dengue fever. Humidity, temperature and wind speed have no effect on the occurrence of dengue fever. Top Keywords Spatial, Temporal, ARIMAX, Dengue Fever, Geostatistical Model, and Model assumption check. Top |