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Year : 2015, Volume : 1, Issue : 1
First page : ( 7) Last page : ( 12)
Print ISSN : 2395-2229. Online ISSN : 2582-2691. Published online : 2015 June 1.

India's Neighbourhood Policy: Challenges and Opportunities

Gupta Arvind1,

1Dr. Arvind Gupta, Former Director General, Institute of Defence and Strategic Analyses, New Delhi. Presently he is Deputy National Security Advisor, National Security Council, Government of India

The Concept of Neighbourhood

India's neighbourhood concept has been dominated by the fact that it has 15, 000 kms. long land frontiers with Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and 7000 kms. long maritime boundaries with Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar. Though, it is often ignored, yet India has a maritime boundary with Indonesia too. Only a 90 km stretch of water separates it from Indonesia. That makes Indonesia a direct neighbour of India.

Besides it is also to be acknowledged the fact that since PoK is an integral part of India and that makes Afghanistan as its neighbour too, as Kashmir touches the Wakhan corridor. Tajikistan is just a few kilometres across the Wakhan corridor. The growing Chinese presence in the PoK is a matter of concern. In the Siachen region, the strategic interests of India come in conflict with those of China and Pakistan. Thus, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Maldives are its direct neighbours. The vastness of India brings distinct flavours to its neighbourhood policy. The unique geographies and cultures of the Himalayas, Central Asia, Persia, South East Asia, and the many flavours of Indian Ocean communities have to be taken into account the neighbourhood policy.

A further complication in the formulation of a neighbourhood policy is the evolving concept of an extended neighbourhood because India gets affected by developments in these regions. One can talk of the West Asia, Central Asia, South East Asia and Indian Ocean as its extended neighbourhoods as its strategic interests are tied with these regions.

Indian Ocean is vital to India's security and prosperity. The maritime dimension is increasingly entering into India's foreign and security policy discourse and behaviour. Given the increase in its global trade and increasing dependence on energy imports India is directly influenced by developments in South China Sea and East China Sea in the West Pacific. Now the concept of the Indo-Pacific, the confluence of Indian and Pacific Oceans, is being debated as a part of India's security paradigm.

India’ neighbourhood is a vast and diverse territory consisting of direct neighbourhood and extended neighbourhoods. Indian policy has generally been land centric as in the past most of its threats have come from across the lands. But the seas and the oceans have their own importance. It was the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century that opened the way for India's subjugation to the western imperialism. So in a construct of neighbourhood, the oceans must also be included.

At another level, the shrinking of distance and time due to globalisation has made the neighbourhood concept elastic and flexible. India is importing huge amount of oil from distant places like Sakhalin (Russia), Nigeria and Angola in Africa through critical shipping lanes. The defence of the sea lanes of communications becomes as important as the defence of land borders. Cyber space, where there are no boundaries and everyone is connected with everyone else, brings in yet another feature to the concept of neighbourhood.

Globalisation has increased the opportunities of travel. Millions of Indians travel to other countries. The number of Indian diaspora now exceeds 20 million. That introduces to yet another layer in the concept of neighbourhood. London, Birmingham, Dubai, Singapore are the places where millions of Indian families have direct interests. Despite tensions and problems, millions of citizens of South-Asian countries come to India for various reasons. No government can ignore the interests of Indians abroad despite the real constrains in this area.

These are the complex factors that influence India's neighbourhood policy. The fact is that India is at confluence of different kinds of neighbourhoods. It is difficult to have one neighbourhood policy. India already has multiple neighbourhood policies.

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South Asian Neighbourhood

When India's neighbourhood is perceived, it is generally linked to South-Asian neighbours i.e. Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Maldives and Bangladesh. They are all very important for its security and prosperity. Pakistan has a special place in South Asia. It has acquired nuclear status; it has a strategic partnership with China, and it has been a part of military alliances and continues to be critical for the situation in Afghanistan. India has fought four wars with Pakistan, all of which were started by Pakistan, as many Pakistani commentators now acknowledge.

It is a fact that India dominates the geography and economics of South Asian region. This brings uniqueness to India's relations with South Asian countries. India is perceived by its neighbours as a big brother or a hegemonic power. India's smaller neighbours have the tendency to balance it by involving countries outside the region, particularly the USA and China. This brings an element of distrust between India and it neighbours.

India on its part is ready to share with its neighbours the benefits of its size and economic growth. It has sought to allay the apprehensions of the neighbours and promoted regional integration. Yet, there is a cold response from the neighbours. The South Asia integration project, institutionalised by SAARC, has not really taken off despite some progress towards SAFTA and the SAARC convention on terrorism. India as the largest country has the main responsibility to take the regional integration project forward. But numerous security concerns that India has vis-à-vis its neighbours have kept SAARC's potential in check.

India's policy towards South Asia consists of the following elements:

Due to the partition of the subcontinent, the political, cultural and economic unity of the South Asian sub-continent was broken. Creating huge security problems for India, these problems still remain with it. Therefore, India's approach has been to keep extra-regional powers away from South Asia, ensure security through bilateral ties and to build its own military capabilities including nuclear weapons to deal with security threats. However, the threat from non-state actors remains a key problem. SAARC convention on terrorism has proved to be of limited value. India is also offering defence cooperation to several countries like Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and Maldives.

India has offered substantial economic cooperation to its neighbours. FTA has been signed with Sri Lanka. An open border is maintained with Nepal and unilateral duty concessions have been given to Bangladesh. SAAFTA has been promoted. Concessions on duties have been offered. India has spent billions of dollars in economic and technical assistance to its neighbours. This has been a major change in Indian policy. Now, India does not hesitate to engage in asymmetric partnership with neighbours in the long term interests of peace and friendship. But the benefits so far have been limited. Neighbours’ suspicion of India has been reduced but not gone away.

India was initially a reluctant participant in the idea of regional integration but of late it has become an enthusiastic supporter. However, the challenge of regional cooperation is huge given the requirement of resources for building various forms of connectivity. In fact, South Asia remains the least integrated region in the world. SAARC has been stuck, unable to reinvent itself. India is trying to re-activate the BIMSTEC but that is taking its own time.

India is trying to promote people to people contacts with other South Asian countries with whom it shares cultural affinity and history. A large number of South Asian people are beginning to come to India for various purposes. However, the visa regime remains restrictive due to numerous security concerns particularly on account of terrorist threats.

India is sensitive to external involvement in the region but has not always succeeded in preventing it. The US, Soviet Union in the cold war days and now China have developed major stakes in the region. This is constricting India's space for manoeuvre in the region. It has not been able to do much to stem the expanding influence of China. The neighbours, in fact, woo outside forces to balance India, because of their wrong perception of India as a hegemonic power.

Challenges and Prospects

India will need to develop multiple neighborhood policies tailored to the unique features of each of the neighborhoods. India's immediate neighborhood is likely to remain volatile in the near future. The main challenge may come from Pakistan where the society is getting radicalized. The return of the Taliban, in whatever form, would be detrimental. China-Pakistan strategic partnership is likely to grow as future connectivity between the two increases further. China's presence in the PoK will also add to Indian concerns.

Afghanistan is entering an uncertain phase. Taliban will either challenge the regime or come back to power.

Nepal is progressing towards a democratic and federal society. This is good news for India. But India will have to remain engaged with Nepal and help it in its democratic transition. Nepalese are sensitive towards India's involvement even if they want India's help. India will have to carve out a balanced policy towards Nepal which respects Nepal's sensitivities and also promises benefits of engagement.

In Bhutan the winds of change are blowing and the onset of democracy will bring some surprises. India must help Bhutan in its growth. Yet, India's security may be affected by Bhutan's growing engagement with China.

In Bangladesh, the Sheikh Hasina has taken numerous bold decisions. Jamaat has been banned and war criminals have been tried but its influence has not gone away. Bangladesh has helped India in dealing with north east insurgents. India expects Bangladesh to provide connectivity to the North East but this will come only if India pays the price through additional investments. The cooperation between India and its neighboring countries can be strengthened by deeper economic and social-cultural engagements.

Myanmar is absolutely critical to India's security and development. It is crucial to the success of India's “look east” policy and India can connect to the South East Asia through Myanmar and Thailand. India should consider trilateral cooperation between India, Myanmar and Bangladesh on maritime security issues.

Relations between India and Sri Lanka have improved but domestic factors on both sides play a role in holding up the relationship. Sri Lanka is an India Ocean country. India and Sri Lanka should find a modus vivendi to deal with each other without allowing bilateral relationship to be driven by any single issue. It is natural for India to be wary of the growing Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. The same goes for Maldives. Chinese footprints will require close monitoring.

The neighbors are looking for India to take a lead in the region but be sensitive to their concerns. Likewise, India also expects its neighbors to show sensitivity to its security concerns. India must lead by example – it must put its own house in order, restore its economic growth, strengthen its economic and technical assistance programme, strengthen socio-cultural links and build friendly constituencies in the neighbourhood.

At the same time, India should not neglect its extended neighborhood where India's concerns lie. India should also bring maritime issues on the table while dealing with neighbours and extended neighborhoods.

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Conclusion

Future holds not only challenges but also opportunities. India should be prepared to meet these challenges and also take advantage of the opportunities.

State to State relations are important but people to people contacts, in the era of globalization cannot be ignored. India should reach out to the friendly constituencies in the neighborhood.

In future, non-traditional security challenges – terrorism; climate change; food, water and energy security; human & drug trafficking; organized crime; health & pandemics will become important. Handling these issues require regional cooperation.

Opportunities will arise for forging cooperative security arrangements which emphasize deeper engagement & peaceful resolution of disputes. India should help build such arrangements. India's soft power could be an instrument of choice in this regard.

At the same time, the possibility of an armed conflict with Pakistan triggered by a terrorist attack cannot be ruled out. On its part, Pakistan is strengthening its strategic ties with China even more than before. China's presence in the PoK is also increasing. Pakistan is talking of Tactical Nuclear Weapons. India will have to find a way of dealing with the military challenge from Pakistan and China which is ever present. It will need to have an appropriate deterrent capability and also a draft diplomacy to meet out these challenges.

Thus to understand India's neighbourhood policy, an in depth understanding of its borders and the people inhibiting these borders is required. The salience of non-traditional security issues in India's relations with its immediate neighbourhood are to be understood in proper perspective. A study of mutual perceptions between India and these states is also required. It is because it is pertinent to understand how these perceptions are formed? Besides, in shaping these perceptions, the role of media and culture needs to be evaluated for proper understanding. Moreover, approaches to regional co-operations, including cooperative security mechanisms, need to be applied. Additionally, an understanding about the challenge of fundamentalism, radicalization and cross-border terrorism have to be understood in proper perspective.

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Acknowledgement

This article was presented as Inaugural Address in the National Seminar on ‘Changing Dynamic of India's Neighbourhood Policy’ organized by the Department of Political Science, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra on 14–15 March 2014.

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