Measuring Economic Uncertainty in Syria: An Approach to the Stochastic Volatility Model Alakkari Khder1, Yadav Shikha2, Mishra Pradeep3,* 1Department of Statistics and Programming, Faculty of Economics, University of Tishreen, Lattakia (Syria) 2Research Scholar, Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi-110007 (India) 3J.N.K.V.V., College of Agriculture, Powarkheda-461110 (India) *Corresponding author's email: pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com
Online Published on 06 February, 2023. Abstract This research aimed to propose an index that measures the degree of economic uncertainty in Syria. As it is a difficult situation to predict, the economic future's uncertainty may be a latent variable that drives random fluctuations in the variables of the economy. The index was estimated within Bayesian inference based on the Stochastic Volatility Model. The fact that volatility in economic uncertainty foreshadows output declines suggested that the economic uncertainty index could be used as an alternative measure of economic activity when these were not available at a high frequency (such as monthly GDP). Top Keywords Common volatility, Economic uncertainty, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Prior distribution, Stochastic volatility model. Top |