Guarseed Prices-Riding the Bull Again Dr. Chelawat Hitesh Business Consultant, V.H. Enterprises 38-B, Panchwati, Udaipur-313004 (Rajasthan) Online published on 22 June, 2018. Abstract Guar also known as cluster bean is a deep-rooted, drought-tolerant, summer-growing, warm-weather, annual legume, that is a natural source of hydrocolloid. The crop originated in Africa or deserts of Middle East but has been grown throughout Southern Asia since ancient times. It is used as vegetable and fodder crop. The plant is extremely drought-resistant and is capable of efficiently absorbing all ground water. Therefore, it grows easily in semi-arid regions. Guar beans have a large endosperm that contains galactomannon gum, commonly known as Guar Gum, a substance which forms a gel in water. It is a kharif crop cultivated mostly in the Northern and North Western India. It is grown in arid zones of Rajasthan, some parts of Gujarat, Haryana, M.P, Punjab and U.P. India is the largest producer of Guar in the World, constitute about 80% of the total production with Rajasthan contributing about 70% of the country's production. The global demand for guar gum is approximately 0.6–0.7 million tons per annum. India and Pakistan contribute about 80% of the world demand, with Jodhpur being the most important processing centre of guar gum contributing about 40% of World's guar gum supply. India exports Guar gum to about 124 countries with regular exports to about 70 countries. Highly refined guar gum or guar powder is used as a stiffener in soft ice cream, a stabilizer for cheeses, instant puddings and whipped cream substitutes. Low grade of guar gum is used in cloth and paper manufacture, oil well drilling muds, explosives and number of other industrial applications. Apart from this, guar beans are normally used as a vegetable for human consumption and the crop is also grown for cattle feed and as a green manure crop. In the past view years, guarseed prices have been very volatile and have ranged from Rs. 1800 per quintal to Rs. 30000 per quintal, due to large speculative activity. This led to very heavy losses to many traders and investors and even closure of many industrial units in the Jodhpur region. Government even had to ban trading in all contracts of Guarseed and Guargum to control this speculation. The study aims to forecast guarseed prices to a certain degree of reliability, based on technical analysis, to help those involved in the trading of this commodity. Technical Analysis is one of the most relied upon tool across the World for forecasting prices of stocks, commodities and currencies. The present study shows that the guarseed prices are once again moving upwards and have crossed the crucial 75 DMA. The bull phase will be further confirmed as prices move above the 300 DMA levels, i.e. Rs. 4885. In the coming months, Guarseed prices are likely to move upwards to the crucial levels of Rs. 6500 by September and further to about Rs. 9500-Rs. 10500 levels by year end. Top Keywords Forecasting, Guargum, Guarseed Prices, Speculation, Technical Analysis. Top |